FxBrokerReviews.org – Due to its unique position within the global economic and political systems, the gold market offers great liquidity and exceptional potential to benefit in almost all circumstances, regardless of whether it is acting like a bull or a bear. Even while many people decide to buy the metal outright, trading on the futures, equities, and options markets provides amazing leverage with manageable risk.
Because they are unaware of the distinctive features of the global gold markets or the hidden hazards that might steal gains, market participants frequently fall short of maximising the benefits of gold price changes. Furthermore, not every investment instrument is made equally: Some gold investments are more likely than others to deliver reliable bottom-line outcomes.
Although trading in yellow gold is simple to understand, it does take specialised knowledge. Incorporating these four strategic measures into daily trading routines can be beneficial for experienced investors, but beginners should use caution. While waiting, experiment until you are familiar with the nuances of these intricate marketplaces.
Wondering how professionals trade Gold?
When investors are seeking a substitute for other currencies that are declining in value, they often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, which increases in value. Rising gold prices are a result of the need for a currency that would maintain its value during times when interest rates are falling globally. The cash, futures and forward markets are where gold is exchanged.
Like dollar rates or Euribor rates, gold has a forward interest rate. When demand for gold grows, the so-called GOFO rate rises in relation to the US dollar. The Gold Forward Offer Rate, or GOFO, is the interest rate at which investors are willing to lend gold on a swap against US dollars. By using gold as collateral, investors may be able to borrow money at a far lower interest rate than they would otherwise have to.
Futures, cash, and forward Traders will assess three factors that provide them with a perspective on the gold market. These include sentiment, the underlying background, and the technical.
What are tools for analysing Gold?
There are methods for assessing how strong a trend is when gold prices increase and decrease. Here, we’ll examine how two distinct but connected gold miner ETFs might be used to recognise and validate price patterns in gold. Making judgments about trading mining business stocks, gold, or gold ETFs is aided by taking a look at these ETFs all at once.
Start by looking for upward tendencies. Several important indicators of a robust gold rally include:
- Gold’s price is beginning to climb or is experiencing a bull market.
- A gold miner’s index, such as the Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), measures the price of gold mining stocks, and it is growing faster than the price of gold.
- An index like the Vaneck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which measures the price of junior gold miner equities, is increasing more quickly than GDX. In other words, the smaller mining businesses are growing more quickly than the bigger, more seasoned ones.
Similarly, the same signs hold for gold downtrends, but we flip the expectations. The price of gold is reducing, the gold miners are declining more than gold, and the junior miners are declining even more than the larger miners in a poor gold market. Since the majority of investors want to buy gold and stay away from downtrends, we will concentrate on the upswing in this essay.
Regarding the first point, although the stocks frequently move first, gold and the mining stocks frequently move simultaneously. For instance, while gold prices are stable, equities often begin to increase first before gold.
When both gold and the stocks are growing, both gold and the mining stocks benefit. Greater swing lows and higher swing highs for gold should start occurring. This is what an uptrend looks like.
Confirmation of Trends
Regarding the second point, the stocks of gold mining companies should also be growing to have confidence in this increase. There are two approaches to determining whether something is true. Obtain a chart of a gold miners index and check to see if it is rising, or make a ratio on the chart that contrasts the miner’s index and gold’s price. The ratio provides a more precise approach to assessing if gold miners are outperforming the price of gold, which is what investors are looking for to validate the upswing.
The miner’s index rises more quickly than the price of gold while the ratio is growing. This supports the upward trend for both gold and mining equities. If the ratio begins to fall, it indicates that gold is outperforming equities, which is unusual behaviour during a sustained gain. As a result, vigilance is advised. Shortly after the ratio started to decline, gold also declined.
The two markets are not confirming each other when the ratio is moving down and gold is heading up. Because the traders of mining stocks have not been persuaded to purchase by the higher movements in gold, it is more difficult to trade because the rise in gold is more likely to fail.
Compare the junior miners to the larger minors as the last check. People are eager to invest in and purchase smaller gold enterprises that are often considered riskier but that also have greater upside potential during strong gold uptrends. During an upswing, the juniors-to-miners ratio should be increasing. If it isn’t, the upward trend may be unstable, which might lead to a decline in gold and mining stocks. The ratio’s increase supports gold’s upward trend. As soon as the ratio begins to decline, gold soon follows, as seen by the decline in the GDX/GLD ratio.
Technical Analysis of Gold Market
By examining a weekly chart, seasoned gold investors try to determine the long-term trend in gold prices. Like other financial assets on the capital markets, gold prices fluctuate and trend. You can evaluate if the price is going to trend or stay in a range by utilising a variety of methods.
Based on their position in relation to the 50 and 10 Weekly Moving Averages, weekly continuous gold futures prices for August 2021 are now trading sideways to downward.
The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is producing a crossing sell signal, and the very close spacing between the moving averages suggests almost flat momentum. Momentum is supporting this judgement. Additionally, the indication seems to indicate that momentum may be about to pick up speed.
Moving average is used by the MACD, a very helpful momentum indicator, to provide a crossover signal that indicates when both positive and negative momentum is accelerating.
Momentum is important
The Relative Strength Index is a frequently employed momentum indicator (RSI). This momentum oscillator indicates if price growth has accelerated during the last 14 periods.
The RSI has been moving lower since spiking during the week ending August 7, 2020. The current score of 47.56 suggests essentially flat momentum with a small negative bias, with readings of 70 representing the high threshold and 30 being the low threshold. Bullish gold traders are currently watching for a market crossover to the 50 level’s strong side. This will give them a head start on a change in momentum upward.
When utilising the RSI, it’s important to consider previous highs in order to gauge how much momentum has previously increased. The weekly RSI has already reached levels of 82, 77, and 75, indicating that when gold prices break out, bullish momentum can still increase over the upper limit at 70.
Gold Market Sentiment
There are several methods for assessing market mood in the gold market. Using the Commitment of Traders report, which is published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is one of the greatest indicators (CFTC). Investors may use this research to better understand market dynamics.
Position data given by category is displayed in the COT reports. Brokers and clearing members are the ones that provide this information to the CFTC. Despite the fact that the real reason a trader takes a position is not disclosed, professionals make educated guesses about those positions.
- Gold Commitment of Traders
Positions are broken down into categories. The categories for gold futures and options include managed money, swap dealers, and other reportable. Banks, investment banks, and merchandisers that cater to a particular sector are all examples of swap dealers. Hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds are examples of managed money. Retail commerce is another reportable.
The CFTC staff does not know the detailed justifications for certain holdings, hence this information is not taken into consideration when classifying traders. For instance, the CFTC is unable to determine whether a swap trader is hedging risk or taking a speculative position. The causes of rising or falling rankings must be assessed by professionals.
- Gold Commitment of Traders Small and Large Speculators
Professional traders often presumptively presume that all swap dealer holdings are hedges resulting from transactions with gold miners and refiners. Those holdings are countered by managed money’s speculative positions.
Managed money adopts positions that reveal emotional information to you. You have to judge the validity of two ideas. The first is now popular. Sentiment toward gold is rising if the COT data reveals that managed money or huge specs are growing their long positions. The negative mood is growing if they are raising their short holdings.
The second idea is the extent to which managed money’s open long or short positions are overextended. Prices may swiftly rebound if managed money is overextended and emotion is too strong.
Gold Fundamentals
The direction of US Treasury rates and the likelihood of a rise or decline in the US dollar are the two most crucial fundamental indicators for gold.
The potential cost of owning non-interest-bearing gold increases when Treasury yields or interest rates rise. Another way to look at it is that because gold doesn’t pay dividends or interest, it is less desirable as an investment when interest rates rise. When interest rates decreased to almost zero, as they did in 2020–2021, gold gained in popularity.
Due to the fact that gold is valued in US dollars, as the value of the dollar increases, gold becomes more costly for owners of other currencies. As a result, gold prices must decrease to reflect the increased cost of buying it in dollars.
When the dollar weakens, the opposite is accurate.
Consumer inflation should be monitored as a third basic element. Gold is regarded as a protection against inflation, which can be brought on by significant stimulus programmes. Gold prices will counteract rises in a basket of commodities or services when inflation is on the rise.
How to Trade Gold?
Let’s have a look at how to trade gold in 4 simple steps:
- What Moves Gold?
Gold is one of the world’s oldest currencies and has a strong psychological hold on the financial industry. Yellow metal is a topic on which almost everyone has an opinion, yet gold itself only responds to a small number of price triggers. Each of these factors divides into two halves, creating a polarity that affects trend intensity, emotion, and volume:
- Prices rising and falling
- Fear and greed
- Demand and supply
While market participants trade gold in response to one of these polarities when another one is actually driving price movement, they run a higher risk. Say, for instance, that the global financial markets experience a selloff and gold has a significant rise. Inflation may have really been the cause of the stock’s drop, drawing a more technical audience that will aggressively sell against the gold surge. For instance, the 2008 Federal Reserve’s economic stimulus initially had minimal impact on gold because market participants were preoccupied with the 2008 financial crisis.
Due to a reflation bid that saw depressed financial and commodity-based assets spiralling back toward historical means, that reversal did not occur right away. After the reflation was over and central banks expanded their quantitative easing programmes, gold eventually reached its peak and began to decline in 2011.
At the same time, VIX started to decline, indicating that fear was no longer a big market mover.
- Understand the Crowd
Numerous groups, with various, frequently competing interests are drawn to gold. Gold collectors, known as “gold bugs,” are at the top of the heap, investing a disproportionate amount of family wealth in gold stocks, options, and futures.
Additionally, the majority of gold bugs are retail players, with very few funds invested only in the long side of the precious metal.
Because they continuously supply purchasing demand at lower levels, gold bugs significantly increase liquidity while maintaining a floor beneath futures and gold stocks.
Additionally, institutional investors who purchase and sell gold alongside currencies and bonds in bilateral strategies known as “risk-on” and “risk-off” engage in a significant amount of hedging activity. By assembling baskets of securities that balance safety and growth (risk-on and -off, respectively), funds may quickly trade these combinations. They are particularly well-liked in marketplaces with a lot of disagreement and low levels of usual public engagement.
- Read the Long-Term Chart
Spend some time being intimately familiar with the gold chart, beginning with a long-term history that spans at least 100 years. The metal has not only established patterns that lasted for decades, but it has also slowly declined for very extended periods, depriving gold bugs of earnings. This study pinpoints price levels that should be kept an eye on from a strategic perspective in the case and when the yellow metal makes a comeback to test them.
Until the elimination of the gold standard for the dollar in the 1970s, gold’s recent history showed minimal fluctuation. This extended upswing was supported by soaring inflation brought on by surging crude oil prices.
Due to the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy, it began to decline about $800 in the middle of the 1980s after peaking at $2,420 an ounce in February 1980.
The following slump persisted throughout the late 1990s before gold began its legendary rise, which reached its peak in February 2012 at $2,235 per ounce. Since then, there has been a gradual fall that has lost almost 600 points in four years. Even though it saw its highest quarterly rise in three decades in the first quarter of 2016, it is currently priced at $1,882 per ounce as of May 2022.
- Choose Your Venue
Due to far lower average participation rates than stock markets, this oscillation has a stronger influence on the futures markets. The CME Group, based in Chicago, hasn’t significantly improved this equation in recent years despite adding new products. Three main gold futures include the 100-oz.
With unusually tight spreads that can reach as low as one penny, the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) exhibit the highest level of participation in all sorts of market conditions. The influence of spot and futures prices is reduced by the extensive price hedging used by large mining firms, whose operations may also retain considerable holdings in other natural resources, such as silver and iron.
Bottom line
Weekly swings in gold prices are common, and over the long run, the metal either trades inside a trend or consolidates. You can predict the direction that gold prices will go in the future by using a variety of technical indicators, including the MACD, RSI, and moving averages. Additionally, to forecast the price of gold, skilled traders use technical analysis, sentiment research, and fundamental analysis. The CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report is one source for sentiment research. Professional investors will also keep tabs on the movement of Treasury rates and the value of the US dollar, which are what determine the price of gold.
Four steps can help you trade the gold market profitably. Learn first how three polarities affect most gold purchasing and selling choices. Second, get to know the many communities that concentrate on gold trading, hedging, and ownership. Third, spend some time studying the long and short-term gold charts, keeping an eye out for important price levels that could be relevant. Finally, select a risk-taking venue that emphasises strong liquidity and simple transaction execution.
